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EquityPandit

EquityPandit
ECONOMY

RBI to Raise Repo Rate to 5.9%: Morgan Stanley

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In the credit policy, the monetary policy committee plans to raise the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.90 per cent and keep the stance unchanged, as per Morgan Stanley.

“We were earlier expecting a 35bp increase. However, in our view, the sticky inflation and continued hawkish stance of DM central banks warrants continued front loading of rate hikes,” media reported.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has ranged above the upper tolerance band for the eighth straight. Therefore, the inflation will remain around 7.1-7.4 per cent in September.

“After that, we expect the trend to moderate but remain above 6 per cent until January/February 2023. Risks to the inflation outlook are skewed to the upside due to uncertainty around food inflation trajectory (sowing for rice and pulses is lower YoY), changes in global commodity prices and the possibility of imported inflation if the exchange rate weakens amid dollar strength,” the media reported.

The RBI repo rate by 140 basis points with surplus liquidity has fallen significantly, now to $19.1 billion from $89 billion in January 2022, pushing the weighted average call rate to 5 per cent from 3.5 per cent in April. However, real rates have been less stark, with real policy rates at -1.6 per cent currently vs -3.8 per cent in April.

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ECONOMY

India sees minimal impact from US trade policies, but risks persist: UBI Report

Dhruva Kulkarni

India’s economy may avoid major fallout from US trade tensions due to its trade balance. Still, the final impact depends on upcoming trade negotiations, according to a Union Bank of India report.

While the economy remains resilient, currency fluctuations and liquidity conditions are being affected, prompting the RBI and government to take steps to maintain stability.

Key exports like automobiles, gems, steel, and pharmaceuticals remain vulnerable to tariff changes and restrictions.

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In response to US protectionist policies, India may impose countermeasures, impacting sectors such as steel, solar energy, and food products.

Lower oil prices could support energy-dependent industries, but metal producers face challenges from global price fluctuations and trade uncertainties.

US economic uncertainty, driven by shifting trade policies, has led to weaker growth forecasts and rising inflation.

Market instability continues to affect global trade, with concerns over US recession risks and unpredictable policy decisions.

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ECONOMY

Taiwan Offers to Help India Cut Trade Deficit with China

Dhruva Kulkarni

Taiwanese Deputy NSA Hsu Szu-Chien emphasised that Taiwan can help India reduce its reliance on Chinese electronic imports, with a free trade pact being key to stronger economic ties.

Speaking at the Raisina Dialogue in Delhi, Hsu highlighted how Taiwan’s technology and India’s young workforce could drive high-end tech production, cutting Chinese imports.

He stressed that India could lower its trade deficit by co-producing electronic components with Taiwan rather than relying on imports.

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As a major semiconductor producer, Taiwan manufactures nearly 70% of the world’s chips, essential for AI, smartphones, and defence equipment.

Hsu stated that Taiwan strongly intends to negotiate a trade deal with India, as high tariffs currently hinder investment by small and mid-sized Taiwanese firms.

Despite no formal diplomatic ties, India-Taiwan trade relations are growing, with Taiwanese investment in India exceeding USD 4 billion under the ‘Make in India’ policy.

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ECONOMY

India, Malaysia Explore Stronger Ties in Semiconductors & Manufacturing

Dhruva Kulkarni

Union Minister of State for Commerce & Industry and Electronics & Information Technology (IT) Jitin Prasada met Malaysian Deputy Minister of Investment, Trade, and Industry Liew Chin Tong in New Delhi to discuss trade, semiconductor collaboration, and manufacturing certification.

Officials from India’s Ministries of External Affairs, Commerce & Industry, Electronics & IT, and the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS), along with Malaysia’s Ministry of Investment, Trade, and Industry, attended the meeting.

Malaysia is India’s third-largest trading partner in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), with bilateral trade reaching $20.02 billion in FY 2023-24, accounting for 17% of India’s trade with the bloc.

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Both sides agreed to fast-track the ASEAN-India Trade in Goods Agreement (AITIGA) review for completion by 2025, as Malaysia will chair ASEAN that year.

India seeks a country-wise review of AITIGA to address its rising trade deficit with ASEAN, where imports have surged 186% since FY 2010-11, far exceeding export growth.

Indian industries, particularly in steel and electronics, have raised concerns over cheap ASEAN imports, pushing India to seek greater flexibility in trade negotiations.

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ECONOMY

February Trade Data Shows Sharp Drop in Imports, Indicating Slow Growth

Dhruva Kulkarni

India’s trade deficit for February narrowed to a three-and-a-half-year low of $14.05 billion, with an overall surplus of $5 billion when including services. However, the sharp drop in goods imports raises concerns about a potential slowdown.

Both exports and imports fell, with exports declining 11% to $36.91 billion and imports dropping 16% to $50.96 billion.

The steep fall in imports was driven by lower purchases of petroleum (down 30%), iron & steel (down 23%), transport equipment (down 17%), and gold (down 62%).

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Officials attributed the decline to lower commodity prices, but the sharp drop suggests a slowdown, reinforced by weak manufacturing and auto sales.

However, services exports grew 24%, strengthening the rupee, which closed at 86.80/$ on Monday.

Economists now expect a current account surplus of $20 billion for January-March, lowering the full-year deficit forecast to 0.7% of GDP, though US tariffs in April could pose risks.

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ECONOMY

Govt Begins Tur Procurement, Commits to 100% Purchase of Tur, Urad & Masur

Dhruva Kulkarni

Tur (Arhar) dal procurement has gained momentum in key producing states, according to the Ministry of Agriculture.

Procurement has begun in Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Maharashtra, and Telangana, with 1.31 LMT procured till 11th March, benefiting 89,219 farmers.

The government has approved the purchase of 13.22 LMT of Tur, 9.40 LMT of Masur, and 1.35 LMT of Urad for 2024-25 under the Price Support Scheme.

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Procurement is conducted through the eSamridhi and aSamyukti portals, with NAFED and NCCF ensuring 100% procurement of Tur to stabilise prices and support farmers.

Under the PM-AASHA scheme, the government aims to provide fair prices and maintain a stable supply, committing to 100% procurement of Tur, Urad, and Masur until 2028-29 to enhance self-sufficiency in pulses.

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