Bangladesh will continue to have a higher gross domestic product (GDP) per capita than India through 2022, according to the latest figures from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

However, the agency estimates that India will overtake Bangladesh within the next two years, regaining the lead until at least 2028.

The main reason for this trend in Bangladesh will likely be economic growth driven by strong external demand. Furthermore, the country is not facing contraction even during the Covid-19 pandemic.

On the other hand, India experienced a contraction in FY21 despite being the fastest growing and is expected to experience slower growth this fiscal year compared to the previous one.

Commenting on the trend, Kaushik Basu, former chief economic advisor and former chief economist at the World Bank, said that with new World Bank-IMF data coming out, it is clear that Bangladesh Per capita income in India has been higher than that in India since 2019.

“This was unthinkable 10 years ago. We must not be jealous of a developing country that is doing well. But we must pay more attention to data and science,” Basu tweeted.

According to the World Bank’s country profile for Bangladesh, the country has a strong record of growth and development, even in times of high global uncertainty.

“A strong demographic dividend, robust garment exports, strong remittance inflows, and stable macroeconomic conditions have underpinned rapid economic growth over the past two decades,” the World Bank said.

According to the World Bank’s country profile for Bangladesh, the country has a strong record of growth and development, even in times of high global uncertainty.

“A strong demographic dividend, robust garment exports, strong remittance inflows, and stable macroeconomic conditions have underpinned rapid economic growth over the past two decades,” the World Bank said.

Meanwhile, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) cut its GDP growth forecast for Bangladesh to 5.3% in FY24 from 7.1% in the previous fiscal.

In its latest Asian Development Outlook, the Asian Development Bank said the slower growth forecast reflected weaker domestic demand and slower export expansion due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“The main risk to this growth forecast is a sharper economic slowdown in Bangladesh’s main export destination, driven by global uncertainties stemming from prolonged political tensions,” the ADB said.

For India, the Asian Development Bank cut its FY24 growth forecast to 6.4% from 7.2% (as announced in December). “The slowdown in growth in FY23 is predicated on a continued slowdown in the global economy, tightening monetary conditions and higher oil prices,” the agency said.

The World Bank also lowered its growth forecast to 6.3% from 6.6%, while the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised its forecast to 6.5% from 6.4%.