The World Bank reports that adapting to a 0.5-meter sea level rise will cost the three most vulnerable Pacific atoll nations around $10 billion, nearly 20 years’ worth of their GDP.

Kiribati, Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands are small, remote nations spread across 6.4 million square kilometres of the Pacific, where residents live at elevations of just 2-3 metres.

The World Bank report warns that climate shocks like coastal flooding could push a third of Kiribati and Tuvalu’s populations into extreme poverty, and more heat-related illnesses already strain healthcare systems.

A 0.5-meter rise in sea level, which could submerge large areas of these nations, may occur by 2050 under a worst-case scenario, or more likely by 2070.

The report emphasises the urgency for governments to implement adaptation plans to protect these vulnerable populations.

Financing is a key focus at the COP29 climate talks in Azerbaijan, with success likely measured by a new funding target from wealthy nations and the private sector to help developing countries combat climate change.

The World Bank report highlights a large climate funding gap for Pacific atolls, noting they face steep costs to adapt to rising sea levels.

Estimated adaptation costs for a 0.5-meter sea level rise are $3.7 billion for Kiribati, $1 billion for Tuvalu, and $5 billion for the Marshall Islands, equal to about 20 years of their GDP.

These costs cover physical measures like seawalls, house raising, and relocation but do not include needed upgrades in health, education, energy, and water systems.

Importing materials to build seawalls and reclaim shorelines will be both expensive and logistically challenging.

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