IndiGo, the country’s largest airline by fleet and domestic market share, will announce its first-quarter results on August 3, 2022. Compared to the same period last year, the results will be staggering. That’s because the April-June 2021 wave of COVID-19, led by Delta Air Lines, caused a sharp drop in air traffic used only for essential travel.

The result will cross the psychological barrier of Rs 10,000 crore for the first time since Q3FY20. The last fiscal year was worse than when the pandemic began. IndiGo posted a loss of Rs 6,161.84 crore in FY22 compared to Rs 1,681.79 crore in the previous quarter. FY21 lost Rs 5,806 crore after two months of closure. The airline posted a staggering profit in Q3FY22.

The airline ended the quarter with a market share of 56.3%, up 2.5% from the previous quarter. The airline carried 18.3 million passengers, up 37.8% from the previous quarter. It was the best quarter for passenger traffic since the restart of civil aviation in India, and IndiGo made the most of it.

Passenger numbers were up 10% from the October-December quarter (Q3FY22), which was also the period when the airline recorded a profit of Rs 129.7 crore.

Compared to the Q3FY22, traffic volume has increased by 10%, but fuel costs have increased by 41%. Fuel accounts for 35% to 40% of airline expenses, raising the question of whether the quarter was profitable for IndiGo. Still, all signs point to a good quarter.

The airline recorded revenue of Rs 9,480 crore in Q3FY22 and carried 16.6 million passengers. This time the figure has increased by 10%, and the figure will exceed Rs 10,000 crore.

Like many other Indian airlines, IndiGo has been on the receiving end of its staff. The airline has partially restored wages and announced further recovery. Staff costs accounted for 9.4% of total expenses last quarter.

The problem with costs is that they’re not as elastic as revenues, which, while costs remain more or less the same, could slide in another wave of Covid-19. Staff costs increased 6% sequentially.

While Air India has shrunk over the past six months and SpiceJet has yet to take advantage of all the slots in its schedule, Vistara has slowly taken on IndiGo on multiple routes. However, the gap between the market leader and the second place is more than 40% – a luxury that is hard to find in any industry or market.

This quarter, the airline faced human resource challenges. This season will also see Akasa Air take to the skies. IndiGo stepped up the fight by adding frequency on the routes where Akasa Air launched its service.

Air traffic in July fell sharply in the second half of the year, and all eyes will be on the long weekends in August and September to see if the quarter offers some comfort.