India’s economic activity remained resilient in March. However, a slowing pace of exports and rising unemployment have dimmed the outlook for the country, which overtook China to become the most populous nation.
While the needle on the dial measuring so-called animal spirits remained unchanged at 5 for the third straight month, a surge in revenue from taxes on consumption suggested that Asia’s third-largest economy was on track. That’s the reading from an overall activity tracker comprising eight high-frequency indicators compiled by Bloomberg.
The data came against the backdrop of the Reserve Bank of India pausing interest rates for the first time since May to assess the impact of the 250 basis point hikes and support growth. With interest rates still elevated, retail and wholesale price gains have moderated, prompting calls to extend the pause.
Last week, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said her government is making “sufficient efforts” to ensure the economy remained buoyant despite her criticism of OPEC+ production cuts and concerns over the Russia-Ukraine war. She added that weak demand for manufactured goods and services could affect India’s recovery.
The survey of purchasing managers showed an improvement in manufacturing activity as supply chain pressures eased as supplies of raw materials increased. Services sector activity slowed in March from a 12-year high in the previous month, with the composite index falling to 58.4 from 59 in February.
Exports fell 13.9% in March, the fourth straight month of decline, while imports fell 7.9% from a year earlier.
Apple now makes nearly 7% of its iPhones in India and opened company-owned stores in the South Asian country this week to boost retail sales.
Central bank data showed that liquidity in the banking system turned into excess in March, while credit growth slowed to 15% from 15.52% in February.
Goods and services tax revenue, which helps measure consumption in the economy, rose 13% from a year earlier to Rs 1.60 lakh crore ($19.5 billion) in March, the second-highest level in the tax’s six-year history.
According to the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations, new vehicle registrations slowed to 14% in the month from a 16% increase in February. However, passenger vehicle sales rose 14.42% year-on-year, up from 10.9% a month earlier.
Electricity consumption, a widely used measure of industrial and manufacturing demand, has slowed. Peak demand fell to 170 GW in March from 181 GW a month earlier, and soaring temperatures across India are likely to increase power consumption in the coming months. The unemployment rate climbed to 7.80% from 7.45% a month earlier as companies tightened their purse strings after the festive season, according to the Indian Economic Monitoring Center.