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India’s debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio could climb to 87.6 per cent this fiscal, up from 72.2 per cent last year, due to a collapsing GDP and consequently higher borrowings, according to media reported.
The country’s gross debt is likely to be around Rs 170 lakh crore in FY21 as compared to Rs 146.9 lakh crore in FY20, said the research publication of State Bank of India (SBI).
‘Interestingly, the GDP collapse is pushing up the debt to GDP ratio by at least 4 per cent, implying that growth rather than continued fiscal conservatism is the only mantra to get us back on track.’
The report warned that the higher debt amount will also lead to shifting of the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) target of combined debt (of the Centre and states) to 60 per cent of GDP by FY23 by seven years. The target is now expected to be achievable only in FY30.
Fiscal estimates have gone awry across the globe amid higher pandemic-related expenditures. Together with declining GDP growth, the debt-to-GDP ratio has also been adversely affected in all countries.
‘We again reiterate that the current thinking of rating downgrade in policy circles is a false negative as India’s rating is likely to face a litmus test of a downgrade in FY21, depending on what we have done to bring growth back to the track,’ said Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser at SBI.
The report said that the current level of foreign exchange reserves is sufficient to meet any external debt obligations. On the internal debt, since most of the debt is domestically owned, the debt servicing of the same is not an issue.
