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By EquityPandit

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Germany Faces Recession Fears as Economy Shrinks by 0.2% in Q4 Ahead of Election

Germany's GDP fell by 0.2% in the fourth quarter.

The German economy contracted more than expected in the final quarter of last year, raising recession fears as the country faces uncertainty ahead of federal elections.

Germany’s GDP fell by 0.2% in the fourth quarter, worse than the 0.1% drop expected. If the economy contracts again in the first quarter of 2025, it will officially enter a recession.  

The German economy has faced pressure from rising competition, high energy costs, high interest rates, and uncertain economic prospects. It shrank for a second year in 2024.  

The government revised its 2025 growth forecast to 0.3% from an earlier 1.1% due to trade tensions and domestic uncertainty, especially ahead of the federal elections.  

Some business groups predict further contraction in 2025, marking three years of decline, a first since reunification. 

Economic issues led to the collapse of the government in November, triggering snap elections on 23rd February, with the economy as the main concern for voters.

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Japan’s Inflation Rises, Strengthening BoJ’s Rate Hike Outlook

Dhruva Kulkarni

Japan’s inflation surged past expectations in January, rising 3.2%—the highest since June 2023—driven by soaring food prices, including a record 70.9% jump in rice costs, reinforcing the Bank of Japan’s rate hike path.

Overall inflation accelerated to 4%, the first time in two years, as fresh food prices climbed at the fastest pace in two decades, with vegetable prices soaring.

Japan now has the highest inflation among G7 nations, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue raising interest rates.

The BOJ hiked its policy rate to 0.5% last month, its highest level since the global financial crisis, with traders speculating on another increase this year.

Inflation remains a major concern for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s government ahead of the national election by July, as household burdens rise.

With real wages growing just 0.5%, consumer spending remains weak, making upcoming wage negotiations in March crucial for sustaining economic growth.

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Australia Starts Euthanising False Killer Whales After Mass Stranding

Dhruva Kulkarni

Dozens of false killer whales stranded on a remote Tasmanian beach will be euthanised after rescue efforts were hindered by bad weather and the challenging location, Australian authorities said on Thursday.

More than 150 endangered false killer whales were found stranded this week on Tasmania’s northwest coast near Arthur River, about 400 km from Hobart.

Brendon Clark from Tasmania Parks and Wildlife Service said rescue efforts on Wednesday were extremely difficult and even dangerous due to harsh conditions.

On Thursday morning, 27 stranded whales were euthanised, while 38 were still alive. The euthanasia process is expected to conclude later in the day.

Officials noted that the response is complex due to the remote location, tough ocean conditions, and challenges in transporting specialist equipment.

False killer whales can grow up to 20 feet long and weigh 3,000 lbs. They are typically found in deep offshore waters across tropical and subtropical oceans.

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Japan’s Exports Climb Ahead of Potential Trump Tariffs

Dhruva Kulkarni

Japan’s exports surged in January as businesses rushed orders ahead of impending US protectionist measures under President Donald Trump.

Exports rose 7.2%, driven by car and ship shipments, though slightly below the expected 7.7% growth. Imports jumped 16.7%, led by communication machinery and computers, pushing the trade deficit to ¥2.76 trillion ($18.2 billion), the largest in two years.

Shipments to the US climbed 8.1%, while exports to China dropped 6.2% due to Lunar New Year disruptions. Exports to Europe saw a sharper decline of 15.1%.

Trump plans to impose 25% tariffs on automobiles, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, with an announcement expected by 2nd April. Japan is seeking exemptions from steel, aluminium, and other tariffs while assessing further trade risks.

Despite efforts to mitigate the impact, Japan’s trade surplus with the US stands at ¥477 billion, with auto exports surging 21.8%, keeping it in Trump’s tariff crosshairs.

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Macron Seeks to Align Europe and Ukraine with Trump on Peace Efforts

Dhruva Kulkarni

Emmanuel Macron held separate talks with Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy to align with the US on ending Russia’s war on Ukraine, following a mini-summit with European leaders on Ukraine and defence spending.

European leaders were shocked by Trump’s push for talks with Putin, and US and Russian officials were meeting in Saudi Arabia soon.

Macron stressed the importance of strong security guarantees for Ukraine and pledged continued support and defence investments.

Zelenskyy emphasised that only robust security guarantees would prevent a fragile ceasefire from leading to further Russian aggression.

As the US accelerates talks, Ukraine and Europe seek security guarantees before negotiating with Russia.

The Trump administration is looking for European input on security guarantees for Ukraine and deterrence of Russia.

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Japan’s Economy Surges in Q4 Driven by Strong Capex

Dhruva Kulkarni

Japan’s economy grew at an annualised rate of 2.8% in the October-December quarter, driven by stronger business spending and better-than-expected consumption.

Strong domestic demand is supporting Japan’s recovery despite concerns over U.S. tariff threats impacting exports.

The positive growth may prompt the Bank of Japan to tighten interest rates and further normalise monetary policy.

GDP growth exceeded expectations, with a 0.7% quarterly rise, surpassing the forecasted 0.3%.

Private consumption rose by 0.1%, defying a predicted 0.3% decline, partly due to year-end bonuses.

Capital spending increased by 0.5%, reversing a decline from the previous quarter, though it fell short of market estimates.

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