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By EquityPandit

INDIA

Fiscal Deficit to Bring Down to 4.5% of GDP by FY26: Budget 2021

India’s fiscal deficit target for 2021-22 is a little bit higher than expected, a Moody’s analyst said on Monday, after the government presented its federal budget to reignite economic growth hamstrung by the coronavirus pandemic.
India’s finance minister, Nirmala Sitharaman, set a fiscal deficit target of 6.8% of GDP for the year ending March 2022, while for the current financial year it is estimated to jump to 9.5% – nearly thrice the government’s target of 3.5% set before the pandemic struck.
“The government is trying to balance between support for the economy and some measure of return to fiscal normalcy,” said Gene Fang, associate managing director, sovereign risk group, Moody’s Investors Service.
Fang said asset monetization by the government, which has generally been difficult to achieve, would be key to meeting the fiscal deficit projection given already weak tax collections.
Despite the limited fiscal headroom the government proposed doubling healthcare spending and a slew of infrastructure and transport projects to boost spending and spur growth. The government also said it aims to bring down the fiscal deficit to 4.5% of GDP by FY26.
“It’s good to know that there is some path towards that consolidation in our view,” Fang said. “I think it’s really going to be nominal GDP growth which has the biggest impact on how much achievable that is.”
The economy is projected to contract 7.7% in the current fiscal year ending in March but then gather steam in 2021/2022 to hit 11% largely on account of a low base.

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INDIA

India Considers Tariff Reductions on $23 Billion in US Imports to Protect $66 Billion in Exports

Ali Waghbakriwala

India is considering lowering tariffs on over half of $23 billion worth of US imports as part of an ongoing trade deal with the United States, two government sources revealed. This move, the most significant tariff cut in years, is aimed at preventing retaliatory US tariffs.

With US President Donald Trump’s new reciprocal tariffs set to take effect on April 2, global markets have been rattled, and policymakers, including those in Western nations—are rushing to respond.

According to an internal assessment, 87% of India’s exports to the US, worth $66 billion that could be impacted by these tariffs, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

As part of the proposed agreement, India is prepared to reduce tariffs on 55% of US goods currently taxed at 5% to 30%. In some cases, tariffs could be significantly lowered or even eliminated on over $23 billion worth of imports, according to one of the sources.

Neither India’s trade ministry, the Prime Minister’s Office, nor a government spokesperson responded to requests for comments.

Trade Deficit and Tariff Comparison

  • The US trade-weighted average tariff is 2.2%, compared to India’s 12%, based on World Trade Organization (WTO) data.
  • The US runs a $45.6 billion trade deficit with India.

Ongoing Negotiations

During Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s US visit in February, the two nations agreed to initiate trade talks to resolve tariff disputes. Assistant US Trade Representative Brendan Lynch will lead a delegation for negotiations starting Tuesday.

However, Indian officials emphasized that any tariff reductions would depend on securing relief from US reciprocal tariffs. The final decision is yet to be made, and alternative options, such as sector-specific adjustments and product-by-product tariff negotiations, are also under discussion.

Additionally, India is exploring broader tariff reforms to lower trade barriers across sectors, but these discussions are still in their early stages and may not be part of the immediate US trade talks.

INDIA

India’s First Hydrogen Train Delayed, Now Expected by June

Dhruva Kulkarni

India’s first hydrogen fuel cell train is delayed until June due to technical issues found during testing. Initially, it was set to launch on the Kalka-Shimla route by December 2024.

The train requires a larger fuel cell for full-capacity operations. Testing showed it could complete the 96 km journey on a single cell but struggled at full load in extreme weather.

Indian Railways will modify the train over the next two to three months. Officials noted it may need to run at reduced speeds under heavy loads in temperatures below 5°C or above 35°C.

Track upgrades between Shimla and Kalka are underway to support speeds of around 100 km/hr, ensuring better efficiency once the train is operational.

The train, manufactured by the Integral Coach Factory, is part of India’s Rs 2,800 crore push for zero-emission mobility, with plans to develop 35 hydrogen-powered trains.

Currently undergoing trials on the Jind-Sonipat route, it will feature a 1,200-horsepower engine, making it the world’s most powerful hydrogen train. Fuel cell operations require 40,000 litres of water per hour.

India joins Germany, China, and the UK in adopting hydrogen rail technology. The project includes hydrogen refuelling infrastructure with safety approvals in place, reinforcing Indian Railways’ goal of carbon neutrality by 2030.

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INDIA

Toyota to Launch First India R&D Hub, Plans 1,000 Engineers & EV Expansion by 2027

Dhruva Kulkarni

Toyota Motor Corp. is establishing its first R&D centre in India near its Bidadi plant, starting with 200 employees and expanding to 1,000 engineers by 2027, highlighting the market’s rising significance.

The facility aligns with Toyota’s strategy to make India a hub for its Middle East, East Asia, and Oceania operations, focusing on clean and green technologies.

While plug-in EVs have yet to be sold in India, Toyota has relied on hybrids and its partnership with Suzuki to expand in the market. The upcoming Urban Cruiser EV—a rebadged Suzuki e-Vitara—will be built in Gujarat starting in 2025.

The India R&D centre will be Toyota’s third in Asia-Pacific outside Japan, potentially evolving into a global hub like Mercedes-Benz’s Bengaluru centre.

Amid growing competition from Chinese automakers like BYD, Toyota is intensifying its focus on India for future growth.

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INDIA

Delhi Govt Plans Artificial Rain, Anti-Pollution Drive to Tackle Smog

Dhruva Kulkarni

The Delhi government is set to conduct artificial rain trials, pending water sample test results, along with large-scale anti-pollution efforts to tackle pollution hotspots across Delhi-NCR.

Environment Minister Manjinder Singh Sirsa said the government is actively working to reduce pollution, with visible improvements and efforts accelerating for better air quality.

The government is considering artificial rain, with studies underway to check if the chemicals used could harm health.

A small-scale test will be conducted in outer Delhi, and water samples will be analysed before moving forward with the plan.

Sirsa called the smog tower project a “failure” and said a new multi-area anti-pollution plan will be announced soon.

The new plan will focus on directly targeting pollution sources and working to reduce them.

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INDIA

West Bengal Govt Announces Rs 6,800 Bonus for Employees, Rs 3,500 for Pensioners

Dhruva Kulkarni

The West Bengal government will provide an ad hoc bonus of Rs 6,800 to employees earning below Rs 44,000 per month as of March 2024, excluding those under productivity-linked bonus schemes.

Eligible employees will receive the bonus before Eid-ul-Fitr or between 15th and 19th September.

Pensioners will get an ex gratia payment of Rs 3,500.

Employees earning up to Rs 52,000 per month can avail an interest-free advance of up to Rs 20,000.

Thousands of government employees and pensioners are expected to benefit from this decision.

Separately, the West Bengal government informed the Supreme Court that the state commission for backward classes is reassessing the issue of backwardness, with the next hearing scheduled for July.

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