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By EquityPandit

EquityPandit

EquityPandit
BANKNIFTY

Bank Nifty Outlook for the Week (September 21, 2015 – September 25, 2015)

EquityPandit’s Outlook for Bank Nifty for the week (September 21, 2015 – September 25, 2015):

 

BANK NIFTY:

 

BANKNIFTY

 

Bank Nifty ended the week on positive note gaining around 5%.

As we have mentioned last week that if the index breaks above the levels of 16780, then the index can move to the levels of 17200 to 17500 from where the index was sold off and the index manages to hit a high of 17602 on 18/09/2015 but could not close above the levels of 17500.

Coming week will be the expiry week so index can be highly volatile. Options data suggest that the index should move in the range of 16500 on downside and 18000 on upside during the week.

Support for the index lies in the range of 16500 to 16750. If the index drifts below the level of 16500 on closing basis then the index can drift to the levels of 16000.

Resistance for the index lies in the range of 17500 to 18000. If the index moves above this levels on closing basis then the index can move to the levels of 18500.

Range for the week is seen from 16000 to 16500 on downside to 17500 to 18000 on upside.

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ECONOMY

India’s Industrial Growth Slows to 2.9% in February on Weak Manufacturing

Dhruva Kulkarni

India’s factory output (IIP) grew 2.9% in February 2025, slowing from 5.2% in January due to weaker growth across key sectors.

Manufacturing and mining growth eased to 2.9% and 1.6%, respectively, while electricity generation improved to 3.6% from 2.4% in January.

Primary goods growth slowed to 2.8% from 5.5%, capital goods rose 8.2% versus 10.3%, and infrastructure/construction goods grew 6.6% from 7.4%.

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Consumer durables grew 3.8%, down from 7.2% in January, while consumer non-durables contracted 2.1% after a 0.3% decline.

The IIP index for February stood at 151.3, with mining at 141.9, manufacturing at 148.6, and electricity at 194.0.

Key manufacturing drivers were basic metals (5.8%), motor vehicles and trailers (8.9%), and non-metallic mineral products (8.0%), supported by increased production of steel, auto components, and cement.

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ECONOMY

China Hints at Rate Cuts to Offset Trump’s Tariffs

Dhruva Kulkarni

A Chinese state newspaper signalled the need for monetary easing as US trade tensions threaten economic growth, suggesting the central bank should cut interest rates and banks’ reserve requirements.

The report stated that such measures could stabilise markets, boost confidence, and mitigate external shocks.

Chinese stocks rose for the third day, driven by stimulus expectations and hopes for a trade deal with the US. The urgency for easing increased after US President Donald Trump raised tariffs on Chinese imports to 125% while pausing levies on other trade partners.

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Meanwhile, China’s consumer deflation extended for a second month in March, adding to economic concerns.

The People’s Bank of China has repeatedly pledged to lower borrowing costs and reserve requirements, fueling a rally in China’s bond market.

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ECONOMY

Piyush Goyal to Discuss Export Strategies Amid Trump’s Tariff Moves

Dhruva Kulkarni

Union Minister Piyush Goyal will meet exporters at Vanijya Bhawan in New Delhi today from 3 PM to 5 PM to discuss challenges posed by US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. 

The meeting will focus on strategies to mitigate their impact, with exporters exploring new markets in gems, jewellery, electronics, textiles, and apparel.

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Senior Ministry officials, along with representatives from Export Promotion Councils (EPCs) and the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO), will participate, according to PTI (Press Trust of India Ltd).

Earlier today, Goyal emphasised that India’s best interests remain the priority in trade negotiations. Speaking at the Dubai India business forum in Mumbai, he reaffirmed that ‘India First’ is the guiding principle, assuring business leaders that trade agreements will support the country’s long-term economic goals.

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ECONOMY

RBI May Cut Rates on 9th April Amid Global Tariff Pressures

Dhruva Kulkarni

With global trade tensions rising due to tariff hikes, all eyes are on the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) policy decision on 9th April. Experts expect the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to weigh these risks while focusing on domestic factors.

A 25-bps rate cut is widely anticipated, with inflation cooling, growth slowing, crude oil prices falling, and US bond yields dipping. While many foresee further reductions in June, opinions differ on the RBI’s stance—about half expect a shift to ‘accommodative,’ while 40% believe it may remain ‘neutral’ amid global uncertainties.

Most predict the repo rate could bottom out around 5.5%, implying a total 75-bps cut. No major liquidity surprises are expected, as the RBI has already eased conditions through open market operations and currency swaps. Further liquidity measures would be market-positive.

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Higher global tariffs could shave 30–60 bps off India’s GDP growth, but the RBI will likely maintain or slightly lower its forecast. On inflation, 60% expect no change, while 40% foresee a slight revision to 4–4.1%.

Overall, the policy is expected to be dovish, with the RBI balancing global risks and domestic growth. Further rate cuts may be on the horizon.

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ECONOMY

India Raises Excise Duty by Rs 2 on Petrol & Diesel; Retail Prices Unchanged

Dhruva Kulkarni

On 7th April, the Indian government announced a Rs 2 per litre hike in Special Additional Excise Duty (SAED) on petrol and diesel, effective from 8th April.

With this revision, SAED on petrol will rise from Rs 11 to Rs 13 per litre and diesel from Rs 8 to Rs 10 per litre. Despite the hike, the Petroleum Ministry confirmed that retail prices will remain unchanged. Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri assured consumers that the increase would not be passed on to them, stating, “This will not be passed on to the consumer.”

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Puri explained that while crude oil prices have dropped to around $60 per barrel, state-run oil marketing companies (OMCs) manage inventory purchased at an average of $75 per barrel, as they typically hold stock for over 45 days. He added that OMCs may consider price revisions if crude stabilises between $60 and $65 per barrel.

This move comes amid a sustained decline in global crude prices, driven by rising supply from non-OPEC (Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) producers and weaker demand. The downturn has been further intensified by trade tensions following tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump.

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