Asian shares followed Wall Street lower on Thursday, while bond yields remained subdued as investors weighed the risk of a global recession amid uncertainty over hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England’s pledge to stabilise markets.
Recession risks also fuelled concerns about oil demand, with crude prices failing to rebound after falling 2% the previous day. The dollar was steady against major currencies as traders awaited data on US consumer prices that could reveal the pace of further Fed tightening.
Japan’s Nikkei lost 0.53%, and South Korea’s Kospi lost 1.18%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 1.02%, while mainland Chinese blue-chip stocks lost 0.64%.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares fell 0.54%, near Wednesday’s 2.5-year low. The Australian stock market benchmark was an outlier, barely rising 0.1%, helped by a surge in Qantas shares after it said it expected to turn a profit in the year’s first half.
US emini stock futures also offered some hope, rising 0.1% after the S&P 500 lost 0.33% overnight. Long-dated US Treasury yields hovered near their lows of the past two days, with Tokyo trading little changed at 3.9227%.
US interest rates fell overnight, and while several committee members said “adjustments” for further rate hikes were important, minutes from the Fed’s latest policy meeting showed that the risk of a “material adverse impact” on the economy was reduced.
US Treasury yields were lower after the minutes, reversing earlier gains as investors focused on a dovish tone, sending yields back from near two-decade highs.
But Fed Governor Michelle Bowman expressed a hawkish stance in a speech on Wednesday, saying she would continue to support aggressive rate hikes if high inflation doesn’t start to abate.
Markets are pricing in a 90% chance of another 75 basis point hike in November and a 10% chance of a 0.5 basis point hike. Investors are now focusing on US consumer price data due later in the global day.
The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, held near mid-range for the week, little changed at 113.27. USD/JPY held near a fresh 24-year high from 146.98 overnight, last changing hands at 146.85.
But the dollar was little changed against the pound, recovering strongly from a two-week low of $1.0925 on Tuesday. It was last traded at $1.1086.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fluctuated to 4.429% on Wednesday from a fresh 14-year high of 4.632%, little changed from the previous session.
The Bank of England insisted that its emergency bond market support expire on Friday, as originally announced, refuting media reports of continued aid if necessary.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey angered markets on Tuesday, saying British pension funds and other investors hit by a slump in bond prices had to meet a deadline to resolve issues.
Meanwhile, the crude oil market remained weak. In early trade on Wednesday, US crude futures were down 7 cents at $87.20 a barrel, while Brent crude futures were down 1 cent at $92.44 a barrel.