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By EquityPandit

INDIAWORLD

Risk of a Second Wave of Covid-19 in India Has Risen: Nomura

The risk of a second pandemic wave in India has risen materially as Covid-19 cases are rising in states outside Maharashtra, said global brokerage firm Nomura. The increased caseload could lead to near-term growth concerns and delay market expectations on the timing of policy normalization, it said in a report on Wednesday. However, this would have limited medium-term implications as the vaccination drive progressed and easier financial conditions act as tailwinds to the economy, the report said.

“We expect only marginal negative growth effects, because government restrictions are less stringent, the goods sector continues to chug along and households and businesses have adjusted to the new normal,” said Nomura economists Sonal Varma and Aurodeep Nandi in the report.

Daily cases are expected to rise over the coming months as the trend of increasing infections spread to states like, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana, Tamil Nadu, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Delhi, West Bengal and Punjab apart from Maharashtra.

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INDIA

India Considers Tariff Reductions on $23 Billion in US Imports to Protect $66 Billion in Exports

Ali Waghbakriwala

India is considering lowering tariffs on over half of $23 billion worth of US imports as part of an ongoing trade deal with the United States, two government sources revealed. This move, the most significant tariff cut in years, is aimed at preventing retaliatory US tariffs.

With US President Donald Trump’s new reciprocal tariffs set to take effect on April 2, global markets have been rattled, and policymakers, including those in Western nations—are rushing to respond.

According to an internal assessment, 87% of India’s exports to the US, worth $66 billion that could be impacted by these tariffs, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

As part of the proposed agreement, India is prepared to reduce tariffs on 55% of US goods currently taxed at 5% to 30%. In some cases, tariffs could be significantly lowered or even eliminated on over $23 billion worth of imports, according to one of the sources.

Neither India’s trade ministry, the Prime Minister’s Office, nor a government spokesperson responded to requests for comments.

Trade Deficit and Tariff Comparison

  • The US trade-weighted average tariff is 2.2%, compared to India’s 12%, based on World Trade Organization (WTO) data.
  • The US runs a $45.6 billion trade deficit with India.

Ongoing Negotiations

During Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s US visit in February, the two nations agreed to initiate trade talks to resolve tariff disputes. Assistant US Trade Representative Brendan Lynch will lead a delegation for negotiations starting Tuesday.

However, Indian officials emphasized that any tariff reductions would depend on securing relief from US reciprocal tariffs. The final decision is yet to be made, and alternative options, such as sector-specific adjustments and product-by-product tariff negotiations, are also under discussion.

Additionally, India is exploring broader tariff reforms to lower trade barriers across sectors, but these discussions are still in their early stages and may not be part of the immediate US trade talks.

WORLD

Trump Announces 25% Additional Tariff on Venezuela Trade

Ali Waghbakriwala
trump Impacts on Indian Stock Market

US President Donald Trump announced new tariffs targeting nations purchasing oil and gas from Venezuela.

On 24 March, Trump declared that the US would impose an additional 25% tariff from 2 April on countries importing oil from Venezuela, impacting both direct and indirect buyers.

“Venezuela has been very hostile to the United States and the freedoms we uphold. Any country purchasing oil or gas from Venezuela will have to pay a 25% tariff to the US on any trade they conduct with us,” Trump stated on Truth Social.

This new “secondary tariff” will be added to the existing duties, further tightening economic pressure on Venezuela.

In his announcement, Trump claimed that Venezuela has been deliberately sending criminals to the US, which he cited as one of the “numerous reasons” for imposing the tariff.

The decision, which could further destabilize global trade, is also expected to affect major importers like China, possibly disrupting supply chains.

Since his return to the White House in January, Trump has actively imposed tariffs on both US allies and rivals, using trade policies as leverage for economic and diplomatic negotiations.

The final decision on implementing the new levy will be determined by the US Secretary of State in consultation with other government agencies.

INDIA

India’s First Hydrogen Train Delayed, Now Expected by June

Dhruva Kulkarni

India’s first hydrogen fuel cell train is delayed until June due to technical issues found during testing. Initially, it was set to launch on the Kalka-Shimla route by December 2024.

The train requires a larger fuel cell for full-capacity operations. Testing showed it could complete the 96 km journey on a single cell but struggled at full load in extreme weather.

Indian Railways will modify the train over the next two to three months. Officials noted it may need to run at reduced speeds under heavy loads in temperatures below 5°C or above 35°C.

Track upgrades between Shimla and Kalka are underway to support speeds of around 100 km/hr, ensuring better efficiency once the train is operational.

The train, manufactured by the Integral Coach Factory, is part of India’s Rs 2,800 crore push for zero-emission mobility, with plans to develop 35 hydrogen-powered trains.

Currently undergoing trials on the Jind-Sonipat route, it will feature a 1,200-horsepower engine, making it the world’s most powerful hydrogen train. Fuel cell operations require 40,000 litres of water per hour.

India joins Germany, China, and the UK in adopting hydrogen rail technology. The project includes hydrogen refuelling infrastructure with safety approvals in place, reinforcing Indian Railways’ goal of carbon neutrality by 2030.

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WORLD

US Trade Envoy to Visit India Before Trump’s Tariff Plan

Dhruva Kulkarni

With Trump’s reciprocal tariffs nearing implementation, a top US trade official is visiting India for key trade discussions.

Assistant USTR for South and Central Asia, Brendan Lynch, will lead a delegation to India from March 25-29, according to a US Embassy spokesperson.

The Wall Street Journal reports that while the White House remains committed to reciprocal tariffs, sectors like automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors are unlikely to be affected initially.

The “dirty 15” nations with the highest trade deficits with the US may still face country-specific tariff rates instead of a tiered system.

Although most imports will be impacted, the final tariff structure is still being determined.

The visit underscores ongoing trade negotiations as both nations work to manage potential disruptions. March 25-29 talks are expected to clarify India’s stance and possible exemptions before the official tariff rollout next week.

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INDIA

Toyota to Launch First India R&D Hub, Plans 1,000 Engineers & EV Expansion by 2027

Dhruva Kulkarni

Toyota Motor Corp. is establishing its first R&D centre in India near its Bidadi plant, starting with 200 employees and expanding to 1,000 engineers by 2027, highlighting the market’s rising significance.

The facility aligns with Toyota’s strategy to make India a hub for its Middle East, East Asia, and Oceania operations, focusing on clean and green technologies.

While plug-in EVs have yet to be sold in India, Toyota has relied on hybrids and its partnership with Suzuki to expand in the market. The upcoming Urban Cruiser EV—a rebadged Suzuki e-Vitara—will be built in Gujarat starting in 2025.

The India R&D centre will be Toyota’s third in Asia-Pacific outside Japan, potentially evolving into a global hub like Mercedes-Benz’s Bengaluru centre.

Amid growing competition from Chinese automakers like BYD, Toyota is intensifying its focus on India for future growth.

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