Exim Bank on Monday said it expects merchandise exports to touch USD 78.6 billion logging in a 4.9 per cent growth on-year in the March quarter, of which non-oil exports are seen at USD 73.9 billion – 12 per cent more than the year-ago period. During the March quarter of FY20, merchandise exports stood at USD 74.9 billion and non-oil shipments at USD 65.9 billion, Exim Bank said in a statement on Monday.

Aggregate exports for FY21 are likely to be at USD 279.4 billion, down 10.8 per cent over FY20, the bank said, adding non-oil exports are seen at USD 256.8 billion, down 5.6 per cent. The fall in exports of petroleum products can be attributed largely to the global slump in demand and especially in the transportation and logistics sectors following the pandemic. Considering the global contraction in trade due to pandemic, non-oil exports have been resilient, as despite serious disruptions and logistical constraints exports remained upbeat, it said.

Merchandise exports contracted 36.7 per cent to USD 51.3 billion in Q1 from USD 81.1 billion in Q1 FY20, but imports fell a much sharper 52.4 per cent to USD 60.4 billion in the same period as against USD 127 billion a year ago due to the pandemic. Between April and December 2020 trade deficit plunged to USD 57.5 billion from USD 125.9 billion in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal.

Exim Bank releases its merchandise export forecast and non-oil exports every quarter basis based on the bank’s leading index (ELI) model, which gauges the outlook for exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports on a quarterly basis