On Monday, Asian shares rose cautiously on hopes the Federal Reserve may be less aggressive in raising interest rates this week, while wheat prices rose after Russia pulled out of a deal that would have allowed Ukrainian grain to cross the Black Sea.
Gains in Hong Kong, Australia and South Korea pushed MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan up 0.8%. But Chinese stocks fell on weak economic data, with the MSCI index falling for a tenth straight month. Japan’s Nikkei rose 1.5%.
The performance came after Wall Street rose on Friday, but bond and money markets tempered some bets that the Fed would change its tone. The dollar steadied on Monday after a two-week losing streak, rising 0.5% against the yen.
US Treasuries fell on Friday, sliding further in Asian trade, with the benchmark 10-year yield rising three basis points to 4.0392%. S&P 500 futures fell 0.2%.
Chicago wheat futures rose more than 8% to a two-week high of $8.93 a bushel in early trade before retreating to $8.78 after Russia pulled out of a deal that would allow Ukrainian grain to be shipped to global buyers.
Under the UN-backed agreement, Turkish, Russian and Ukrainian officials coordinated the movement of the ships. No ships moved on Sunday, but the United Nations said it had agreed with Ukraine and Turkey on Monday’s plan to move 16 ships.
This week’s main focus will be the Federal Reserve meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday and US jobs data on Friday. However, Asia will also focus on Chinese economic activity data this week and Tuesday’s Reserve Bank of Australia meeting.
The Shanghai Composite dropped 0.3% after an official survey on Monday showed China’s factory activity unexpectedly fell in October.
The resignation of the chairman of Beijing-based property developer Longfor Group also rattled investors, with shares in Hong Kong falling 40% and the sector under pressure.
With the Fed almost certain to raise rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday, the focus is on the communication of the outlook.
Traders in the interest rate and fed funds futures have now tempered their initial optimism, with the funds rate expected to be close to 5% by May next year. The dollar also paused its retreat.
It rose to 148.04 yen and firmed at $0.9948 per euro earlier in the Asian session. Brent crude futures were hovering at $95.46 a barrel. Spot gold was flat at $1,641 an ounce.