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By EquityPandit

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Asian Stocks Shaken as Focus Turns to US Inflation Data, Fed Outlook

On Tuesday, Asian shares fell as financial markets worried about lingering global cost pressures. Investors turned their attention this week to US inflation data and the prospect of further sharp interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.


The priorities of lowering inflation to support expanded domestic demand and sustainable job growth will be loud and clear at the Jackson Hole Symposium on August 25-27. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.2% in early Asian trade. The index is up 0.5% so far this month. US stock futures rose 0.07%.

Japan’s Nikkei lost 0.81%, while Australian shares were flat. China’s blue-chip CSI 300 index fell 0.31% in early trade. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index opened 0.12% lower.


The Fed saw some encouraging signs on the price front, with a New York Fed survey on Monday showing a sharp drop in consumer inflation expectations in July. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.09%, the S&P 500 lost 0.12%, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.1%. There was also safe-haven buying in bonds as China held several days of military exercises in Taiwan, unsettled by Beijing’s military attack on Taiwan.


The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note rose to 2.7517% from Monday’s US close of 2.763%. The two-year yield hit 3.2115% and ended at 3.216% in the US, as traders’ expectations of a hike in the federal funds rate increased.


The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of other major trading partners, rose to 106.37. After their worst week since April, oil prices extended their pullback recently amid fears that global demand will stagnate as central banks continue to tighten policy. US crude fell 0.19% to $90.59 a barrel. Brent crude fell to $96.48 a barrel.

The dollar’s gains were a setback for gold, although it managed to bounce back from Friday’s lows and trade at $1,788.7731 an ounce.

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China’s Private Factory Output Beats Forecasts Despite Trump Tariffs

Dhruva Kulkarni

China’s manufacturing activity grew at its fastest pace in four months, defying expectations ahead of Trump’s planned tariff hikes on exports to the US.  

The Caixin manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2 in March from 50.8 in February, surpassing forecasts and indicating expansion.  

Supply and demand improved, and exports grew, but the job market remained weak, and deflationary pressures persisted.

The private survey focused on small and export-driven firms and showed stronger results than the official poll.  

Despite US tariffs, China’s manufacturing sector displayed resilience, with new export sales rising at the fastest pace in nearly a year.  

Trump’s administration plans new reciprocal tariffs on 2nd April, with China warning of retaliation, adding to trade uncertainty.

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German Retail Sales Climb, But Import Costs Weigh on Outlook

Dhruva Kulkarni

German retail sales rose 0.8% in February, surpassing analyst expectations of 0.2%, but increasing import prices pose inflation risks that could impact consumer spending.

Economists remain cautious, citing weak consumer sentiment. Chief economist Alexander Krueger noted that growing job concerns are limiting spending. Unemployment increased by 26,000 in March to 2.92 million, nearing the 3 million mark for the first time in a decade.

Import prices jumped 3.6% year-over-year in February, the highest in over two years, driven by food costs. As Germany imports many raw materials, these higher costs could push inflation up.

March inflation data, set for release on Monday, is expected to drop slightly to 2.4% from 2.6% in February.

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Xi Jinping Meets Global CEOs Amid Slowing Investment

Dhruva Kulkarni

Chinese President Xi Jinping met with global CEOs in Beijing to attract foreign investment and support China’s slowing economy amid geopolitical tensions.  

Beijing faces challenges reassuring investors about its $18 trillion economy, with concerns over strict regulations, crackdowns on foreign firms, and a business environment favouring state-owned companies.  

Xi thanked foreign enterprises for contributing to trade, industry, tax revenue, and job creation. Around 40 executives, mostly from the pharmaceutical sector, attended the meeting as China seeks to reverse a sharp 27.1% drop in foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2024—the steepest decline since the 2008 financial crisis.

He emphasised the role of multinational corporations in stabilising the global economy and urged them to support economic cooperation. The meeting followed the China Development Forum, where Premier Li Qiang called for open markets amid rising global uncertainty.  

Xi has also engaged domestic businesses, including a rare meeting with China’s top tech leaders last month, signalling efforts to restore economic confidence.

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Putin Accepts Modi’s Invite to India, Preparations Begin

Dhruva Kulkarni

Russian President Vladimir Putin has accepted Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s invitation to visit India, with preparations underway, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced on 27th March.

Speaking at the ‘Russia and India: Toward a New Bilateral Agenda’ conference, Lavrov confirmed that arrangements for the visit are in progress but did not disclose the dates.

He noted that Modi’s first foreign visit after his re-election in 2024 was to Russia, adding, “Now it’s our turn.” Modi last visited Russia in July 2024 after nearly five years.

On 24th March, Lavrov stated that Russia is developing a “privileged strategic partnership” with India while expanding ties with China, Iran, North Korea, and CIS nations.

In January, Putin emphasised Russia-India relations as a “special and privileged strategic partnership” in his Republic Day message to India.

Modi and Putin maintain regular communication, speaking over the phone every few months and meeting in person during international events.

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Canada Spy Agency Warns of India, China Meddling in Election on 28th April

Dhruva Kulkarni

Canada’s intelligence agency, CSIS, has warned that India and China are likely to interfere in the 28th April election, with Russia and Pakistan also posing potential threats.

The report comes amid strained Canada-India and Canada-China relations, with both nations denying the allegations. CSIS found evidence of foreign interference in the 2019 and 2021 elections but stated that the outcomes were not affected, noting Canada’s slow response.

Deputy Director Vanessa Lloyd warned that China will likely use AI-enabled tools to influence the upcoming election.

Tensions between Canada and India worsened last year after Canada accused India of an assassination plot against a Sikh separatist, leading to diplomatic expulsions.

CSIS continues to monitor foreign interference threats, emphasising the need to safeguard democratic processes and maintain public trust.

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